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Bringing True Strategic Foresight Back to Business

4 min read

Webb — Bringing True Strategic Foresight Back to Business

TL;DR

Amy Webb (CEO of FTSG — formerly Future Today Institute — and professor of strategic foresight at NYU Stern) argues that strategy and foresight diverged into separate, weakened disciplines in the 1990s and need to be rejoined. Strategy without foresight makes companies vulnerable to disruption; foresight without strategy yields unactionable scenarios.

Presents FTSG’s 10-step strategic foresight methodology combining quantitative modeling, game theory, and storytelling to identify “where to play, how to win in the future, and how to ensure organizational resiliency.”

Key claims

How strategy and foresight disconnected

  • 1980s–90s: forward-looking firms used strategy + foresight as a “powerful dual force” — quantitative models, narratives about plausible futures, multiple scenarios.
  • 1990s: companies added CSOs (chief strategy officers) hired from consulting firms; specialization began.
  • Today: CSOs serve as “CEO whispers” and Jane-of-all-trades; foresight devolved into “company speeches, workshops, and lightweight scenarios that lack rigor.”
  • Result: strategy without foresight = vulnerable to disruption; foresight without strategy = scenarios that can’t be acted on.

Three reasons corporate foresight fails today

  1. No standard methodology / vocabulary — practitioners disagree on “trend” vs. “strong signal” vs. “macro trend”; some call themselves futurists, others reject the term.
  2. Lack of rigor — over-reliance on subject-matter-expert interviews, internal surveys, secondary sources; “trend reports” land as too broad/obvious because no quantitative model underpins them.
  3. Reluctance to make predictions — “scenarios are forecasts not predictions” undermines perceived relevance to executive decision-making. Webb argues a scenario is a form of prediction.

FTSG’s 10-step strategic foresight process

StepActivity
1Signal Detection — primary research, expert insights, AI-driven pattern recognition for early signals (replaces “horizon scanning”).
2Trend Identification — score trends on momentum, trajectory, disruptive potential using quantitative data.
3Macro Themes — overarching themes from data-driven impact.
4Uncertainties — categorized using STREEEP + W: Social, Technological, Regulatory, Environmental, Economic, Ethical, Political, + Wild cards.
5Develop Hypotheses About the Future — combine trends + uncertainties; tools: 2×2 matrices, Monte Carlo simulations.
6Scenarios — research-backed; tailored, not template-based.
7Bridge to Strategy — SWOT, challenging assumptions, testing adaptability.
8Strategy — traditional strategic planning; align stakeholders, executive buy-in.
9Strategy Execution — align roles with strategic goals; performance metrics.
10Measure and Recalibrate — continuous monitoring; agile tactical adjustments.

Position foresight horizontally

  • Strategic foresight is interdisciplinary, not multidisciplinary.
  • Should be horizontally positioned, working across marketing, finance, operations, product development.
  • Cited cases of FTSG client work: insurance underwriting strategy; investment-bank M&A guidance in AI; CPG product roadmaps; pharma therapeutic prioritization; hotel digital infrastructure.

Worked example: AI as bank infrastructure

A bank facing AI uncertainty might find: smart home appliances + decentralized marketplaces for computing power → households generate compute capacity from idle smart TVs / washing machines / mobile devices → banks become trusted intermediaries facilitating peer-to-peer compute payments. Reframe AI as infrastructure, not product/service.

Cites Netflix (DVD → streaming) and Schibsted (Oslo, used foresight to anticipate internet’s threat to advertising and built its own digital advertising business ahead of time) as historical exemplars.

Quotes worth saving

“Strategy without foresight makes companies vulnerable to outside disruption. Foresight without strategy renders scenarios unactionable.”

“Considering the speed at which most modern companies are reasonably capable of moving (read: laboriously slow compared to the rate of external change), by the time a two-year plan is executed the future will have moved further out of reach.”

“Ultimately, a scenario is a form of prediction — a deeply researched preview of how the world might unfold. The details of a prediction can and will change from time to time because the world isn’t static. The goal isn’t to be right or wrong, but to refine the strategic actions that should drive the company forward.”

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